Forum:2013-14 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season
Welcome Okay, this may seem early, but the 2013-14 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone has technically began. Anyone is welcome to post predictions regarding total activity here. Here are my predictions: South-West Indian Ocean: 15-15-13-6 (DIS,D,MTS,TC) (Mirana) Australian region: 14-12-6 (TL,TC,STC) (Kate, Alu, Bakung) South Pacific: 16-15-13-6 (DIS,D,TC,STC) (Victor) P.S. We missed a freak tropical disturbance that lasted from July 8 - 9 in the SWIO? Lindsay 2.0? AndrewTalk To Me 21:43, July 31, 2013 (UTC) Betting Pools Here. Ryan1000 16:28, December 31, 2013 (UTC) South-West Indian Ocean Part 2 archived. Ryan1000 19:31, April 11, 2014 (UTC) Australian Region Archived part 2, Ita will get her own archive. Ryan1000 19:34, April 11, 2014 (UTC) 16U.JACK Cyclone Jack This monster popped out of nowhere. STC intensity per BoM, C2 per JTWC. Where is everyone? AndrewTalk To Me 13:54, April 20, 2014 (UTC) :Ha, looks like you're really feeling lonely here. Well to cure your loneliness, your friend Steve is here! XD Anyway, Jack shouldn't be no threat to land, which means we can root for the storm to become as strong as we want! I root for it to become a Category 5 (even though that won't happen). But it will still be a great storm to track, especially at this time of year, which is one of the quietest times for tropical cyclones. Speaking of this storm's name..imagine if we were able to put this storm in a box, open it, let it spring out, and we can scare kids with it! :D Steve820 21:06, April 20, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Jack It's dead. Steve820 04:35, April 25, 2014 (UTC) South Pacific Basin Part 2 archived. Ryan1000 19:33, April 11, 2014 (UTC) 17P.PAM Aoi: East of New Caledonia This has to tell you something.--Isaac829 21:21, March 7, 2015 (UTC) 93P.INVEST Apparently already invested.--Isaac829 21:29, March 7, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 11P Monster in the making.--Isaac829 22:19, March 8, 2015 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Pam Should intensify quickly.--Isaac829 20:25, March 9, 2015 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Well, I usually wait four storms to start this section, and it now looks like I can (even if only a couple names deserve retirement). My predictions: #Alessia (AUS) - 10% - Rainfall in the Gulf of Carpentaria was a little heavy, but that is contrasted by Alessia's lack of damage elsewhere. I usually give a storm like Alessia a 1%, but considering how lenient Australia is on retirement... #Amara (SWIO) - 0% - Name cannot be retired. #Bruce (AUS) - 5% - Bruce did produce some small effects on Indonesia and Cocos Islands, but those will very likely not earn it retirement, especially if no damages or deaths were reported. The stunt Bruce performed of reaching Category 5 intensity after crossing into the SWIO will not get it the boot either. #'Christine (AUS) - 70%' - I may be going a little overboard here, but the city of Wickham in Australia considers this storm the worst storm in recent memory, and further down south, record heat was caused. Moomba nearly broke their record high, and a fire ban was issued for all of Southern Australia. Despite not causing any deaths or damage, this is Australia we are talking about, and if Rusty last year got the boot, Christine may have a decent chance as well. #Bejisa (SWIO) - 0% - See Amara. #'Ian (SPAC) - 60%' - Whole homes in Tonga have been flattened. We have a good retiree right here. #Colin (SWIO) - 0% - See Amara and Bejisa. #Deliwe (SWIO) - 0% - You get the point now... #June (SPAC) - 5% - June did affect a variety of landmasses, but all of them reported only very minimal impact from the storm. Being a basin crosser does not really help here. #Dylan (AUS) - 15% - Although Dylan was a very weak storm, the damage it caused rivals Alessia's. Normally, I would give a storm like Dylan 1%, but knowing Australia... #Edna (AUS) - 5% - Edna did affect Queensland. Now, this is the Australian region, but I think even Australia would know better to retire this. #Fletcher (AUS) - 10% - Fletcher is basically a repeat of Alessia. #Kofi (SPAC) - 20% - Central and Eastern Fiji did get nailed by Kofi. Many homes have been submerged, but I am not sure if Kofi's impact is severe enough for retirement. #Hadi (AUS) - 5% - Despite affecting the Solomon Islands and Queensland, Hadi is most likely staying. #Gillian (AUS) - 25% - Gillian had plenty of effects in Australia, not to mention its erracticness. #Lusi (SPAC) - 15% - Lusi has affected a variety of regions and killed three. #Mike (SPAC) - 1% - Not too much impact from Mike. #''Ita (AUS) - 99% - Oh my goodness, what a storm. First, there was all the flash flooding in the Solomon Islands that caused unprecedented devastation in Honoria. Next came the destruction of hundreds of homes in Papua New Guinea. But most importantly was the rain and wind damage in Australia. Damages are reported to be in the billions, even rivaling Oswald. Finally, in New Zealand, agricultural damages are being compared to Bola '88, one of the nation's worst storms. Knowing how lenient these regions are for kicking out names, bye-bye Ita!'' #Jack (AUS) - 0% - Despite becoming a severe tropical cyclone, Jack had extremely little effects on land. AndrewTalk To Me 13:42, January 6, 2014 (UTC) Knowing Australia, Christine is definitely going to be retired, but I don't expect anything else to go as of yet. Ryan1000 14:19, January 6, 2014 (UTC) :Hey Andrew, you don't have to include every single SWIO storm in your retirement predictions. Since SWIO storms can't be retired, I would recommend removing those storms and putting something like "The SWIO storms, such as Amara, Bejisa, and the others, are not included because they cannot be retired". I'll also recommend spitting the storms into each of their basins (like what me and Ryan did) to reduce any clutter and confusion and make the storms slightly easier to find. Steven09876 01:38, January 25, 2014 (UTC) :::The SHem will be split into their 3 seperate basins starting next year. For the rest of this season, leave the page the way it is. Ryan1000 19:15, January 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::What I meant to say was for Andrew to split his retirement predictions into each of their basin sections (one section for South Pacific and the other for the Australian region) like what me and you did, instead of having the retirement predictions all mixed up. Even though I wasn't talking about this, I also like the idea of splitting the whole forum page into 3 basins next year. It'll certainly be much easier to navigate and find the storms on this page! Steven09876 20:25, January 26, 2014 (UTC) ---- Steven's retirement predictions: South-West Indian Ocean: * Names can't be retired here. Duh! ---- Australian Region: * Alessia: 5% - Not enough impact in Australia. * Bruce: 1% - 0.5% for impacts in Indonesia and Cocos Islands, and bonus points for being an incredibly awesome storm that reached C5 intensity without causing huge danger for landmasses. * Christine: 75% - Since Wickham called this storm one of their worst in recent memory, an unusual heat wave struck just south of the storm, and how Australia is with retirements, I'm going with a very high chance for retirement. If Lua and Rusty was retired, then Christine might leave as well. * Dylan: 15% - A weak storm who made a landfall in Australia. Since about everything that hits them has a chance of retirement, Dylan has a tiny chance as well. * Edna: 5% - Caused a little bit of Australian impacts, but since it was completely weak and did barely any impacts, retirement ain't happening. * Fletcher: 10% - It affected northern Australia, but retirement seems unlikely. Basically Alessia 2.0. * Gillian: 30% - 25% for impacts, and the other, bonus 5% is for its strange track and the unexpected stunt it performed into becoming an intense tropical cyclone after a couple weeks of life as a weakling. * Hadi: 1% - Slightly affected the Solomon Islands and Queensland, but retirement? Of course not! * Ita: 90% - Queensland and the Solomon Islands got beaten to hell by this thing, a retirement is very likely for this beast. * Jack: 0% - Didn't cause any land impacts. ---- South Pacific: * Ian: 75% - Apparently this storm was very bad for Tonga according to Ryan's percentages down below. I think it will be retired, and this storm really deserves retirement for all the damage it's done! * June: 5% - Since it was just a weak TS that didn't affect land all that much, retirement isn't happening. * Kofi: 20% - Fiji and Tonga got plenty of damage from this thing. Small chance of retirement. * Lusi: 20% - Quite a bit of damage and 3 deaths. Just like Kofi, it has a small chance of retirement. * Mike: 1% - This weakling didn't do much at all... Steve820 01:43, January 11, 2014 (UTC) (Last updated 04:36, April 25, 2014 (UTC)) ---- Ryan Grand's thoughts: Australian Region: *Alessia - 3% - Meh, even Australia wouldn't retire this. *Bruce - <1% - It did cause some impacts on a few islands out in the middle of nowhere, but what I like most is that it became a cat 5 well out to sea. Perfect storm to track. *Christine - 80% - Australia has a very generous track record of retirement, if they retired Lua and Rusty then Christine is out as well. *Dylan - 25% - Bumping it a bit high since this is Australia, but otherwise meh. *Edna - 20% - Only because of their track record...if it wasn't for that, this'd be a 0%. *Fletcher - 10% - Minor at most. *Gillian - 20% - Well this was unexpected. I never saw a storm do such strange things in the SHem before. But still, overall impacts weren't too severe. *Hadi - 0% - Eaten alive by Luci. *Ita - 90% - Beat the hell out of parts of Queensland and caused lots of deaths in the Solomon Islands, was possibly the worst storm to hit them since Namu in May 1986. Very likely to be retired. *Jack - 5% - Giving it something because it's remnants caused some flooding in Australia, but I don't think it'll happen. South Pacific: *Ian - 70% - It was described as one of the worst storms in the history of a few of the Tonga islands. One island lost 8000 homes (70% of the population), and 1 person died. Likely going to be retired. *June - 15% - Damage wasn't negligible, but I don't find it retirement-worthy. *Kofi - 20% - Being generous here, overall damage in Tonga wasn't even half as bad as Ian's was. *Luci - 20% - Well, you never know with the SPac or Australia... *Mike - <5% - Never knew this one existed lol. There you have it. Ryan1000 22:05, January 13, 2014 (UTC) ---- My thoughts: Australia: : Alessia - 10% - There were flash floods, but other than that, no significant damage. : Bruce - 5% - Strong storm, but no land areas affected. : Christine - 65% - Minor damage, but with the history of Australia (in retiring storm names), Christine may be retired. : Fletcher - 35% - 5th wettest TC in Australian history. May be retired due to the lenient Australian standards. : Gillian - 20% - Not really, but what a strong storm. : Ita - 90% - From Solomon Islands to New Zealand, damage is widespread. Retirement is imminent. : others - 0% - Nah. South Pacific: : Ian - 75% - Heavy damage, but only one death. Let's see if Ian gets retired. (Though in my opinion, Ian deserves retirement) : Lusi - 50% - There are reports that 10 died due to this cyclone, so I guess it has a chance of getting retired. : others - 0% - Better luck next time. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:13, April 23, 2014 (UTC) Spcardozo's retirements: #dylan 100% #ian 100% #bruce 50% #christine 32% :Uhh, Dylan wasn't that bad, not even close. Also, Bruce stayed out to sea, so it isn't going to be retired at all even though it reached Cat. 5 intensity. And Christine should have a much higher chance of retirement than 32%, since it caused plenty of impacts in Australia and especially since any storm that causes only a little bit of impacts in that country gets retired. Ian should also be slightly lower too, since while retirement isn't extremely certain to happen, it still has a pretty high chance of happening due to its impacts. You don't understand how retirement works. Your retirement predictions are way to extreme for any of us to trust, especially due to my opinions above. Also note that the guy who wrote these retirement predictions is currently blocked, see his block log. Steven09876 05:01, February 7, 2014 (UTC) ::Yeah, I'm probably gonna live to ride again another day XD --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 05:11, February 7, 2014 (UTC) :::Spcardozo is inactive. 01:21, April 25, 2014 (UTC) My Predictions: Australia :*Aleesia - 0% - Not much rain :*Bruce - 23.7% - because of strength and strange track :*Chirstine - 100% - holy farts :*Dylan - 10% -Dylan is my name :*Edna -0% :*Fletcher - 15% :*Gillian -15% :*Hadi - 1% :*Ita -100 : 01:21, April 25, 2014 (UTC) Replacement names Since we do have plenty of retirees in store across the Australian and SPAC basins, I see no harm in beginning this section. Here are my top ten retirees for each name, mostly based on popularity of names in Australia, New Zealand, UK, Ireland, and the Pacific Islands: Ita: #'Isabella' (12th most popular Australian name of 2013) #Ivy (18th most popular Australian name) #Isla (21st most popular Australian name) #Imogen (41st most popular Australian name) #Indiana (38th most popular Australian name) #Ida #Ianthe #Iphigenia #Imelda #Iona Christine: #'Chloe' (Most popular name in Western Australia) #Chelsea (34th most popular name in New South Wales) #Caitlin (93rd most popular name in New South Wales) #Cara #Carys #Cadi #Celyn #Carly #Caoihme #Clara Ian: #'Isaiah' (Most popular name in Atua, Samoa) #Isaac (31st most popular name in New Zealand) #Ioan #Iestyn #Iwan #Igor #Iollan #Icarus #Ivan #Immanuel Lusi: #'Leah' (39th most popular New Zealand name) #Lauren (93rd most popular New Zealand name) #Leslie Fletcher: #'Finn' (88th most popular Australian name) #Finley #Frankie Please feel free to post your replacements, too. AndrewTalk To Me 23:18, April 26, 2014 (UTC) No Andrew444, Isaac is a huge huge no-no-no-no. 18:20, May 24, 2014 (UTC) 18:20, May 24, 2014 (UTC) Igor is not a great name because it's funy 's replacements Ian *Isis *Iris *Isaias *Irin Christine *Christopher *Chloe to be contitsnues 23:30, May 1, 2014 (UTC) : Isaac is a HUGE no-no. It was the worst storm in Tonga's history, retired after 1982. Ian, strangely enough, was also retired in the Australian region after a storm in the early 1990's. As for my choices, I'd pick Icarus for Ian, Chloe for Christine, Leslie for Lusi, and Ivy for Ita. Ryan1000 04:42, May 3, 2014 (UTC) :: Picking out of Andrew's list, I prefer Isabella '''or '''Iona '''for Ita, '''Chloe '''or '''Carly '''for Christine, '''Isaiah '''or '''Icarus '''for Ian, '''Lauren '''for Lusi, and '''Frankie for Fletcher. Steve820 21:05, May 3, 2014 (UTC)